To what extent can Democrats turn the tables on the traditional dynamic in which the presidential nominee helps lift candidates in down-ticket races?
Even among Democrats, a majority of voters are dissatisfied with Vice President Joe Biden’s performance and are lukewarm about voting for the incumbent in the upcoming election.
Democrats, however, are having a banner year at the polls in general, with Tuesday’s near sweep of important contests following a year in which the party’s candidates have greatly outperformed expectations in state and local races and won every state referendum on abortion rights.
Both the Democrats and the Republicans are confused by this political dilemma. Do the Democratic victories strengthen Biden’s hand for the 2020 presidential election? Is the 80-year-old Biden (who turns 81 on Nov. 20) unusually susceptible because of his age and other issues? And might Democrats further down the ballot help elevate their leader to victory next year, reversing the traditional dynamic in which the presidential contender either promotes or deflates candidates in his party?
“I do think at some point this is a Biden problem, not a Democratic Party problem,” says GOP strategist Jason Cabel Roe, a former executive director of the Michigan Republican Party. Roe says, “I do think he’s vulnerable—absolutely,” despite the Democrats’ victories this year and last.
With skill, Democrats used abortion rights to win the governor’s race in Kentucky and several other statewide races. Despite the president’s low approval ratings, his party managed to retake the senate in Virginia, add several seats in the state legislature of New Jersey, and win a special election for a seat in the New Hampshire legislature, putting them on the cusp of regaining control of the 400-member chamber in the coming year.
So, what are you going to believe, Democratic officials and political operatives say—your lyin’ eyes, opinion polls or actual voters who have put Democrats on a winning streak? “These figures provide a glimpse one year from now. Jessica Taylor, editor of the nonpartisan Cook Political Report, said, “I don’t see them necessarily as a predictor” of the 2024 elections. “These contests are simply going to be really tight. I don’t think we’ll know for a long time.
On Thursday, in response to queries about polling, Vice President Biden dismissed a sombre New York Times/Siena College poll that showed President Obama trailing GOP frontrunner Donald Trump in five of six swing states.
When asked whether he believed he was behind in key states, President Trump responded, “No, I don’t.” Key states include Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin.
Members of the Biden team have stated that they are ready for a close battle next year. While some Democrats, most recently former Obama adviser David Axelrod, have called for Biden to step aside, the current administration has warned that Biden should not be underestimated because of his track record.
Many political observers wrote off Joe Biden in the early stages of the 2020 primary season because of his dismal performance in early nominating contests.
Campaign manager for the Biden-Kamala Harris ticket, Julie Chavez Rodriguez, told reporters on a conference call on Thursday that people should look less at what people say pollsters say and more at how people are actually voting if they want a real insight into how Biden is positioned for the 2024 election.
Republicans tried to exploit President Biden and his plan as a smear against Democrats, but she said that their efforts were futile because the president was not on the ballot this year or in the elections.
The Supreme Court’s decision in Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organisation, which removed the constitutional right to abortion, has been a major source of voter anger since last summer, especially among women, who make up the majority of voters.
The Kentucky GOP intended to associate Democratic Gov. Andy Beshear to Biden, who is immensely unpopular in the Bluegrass State, but Republican challenger Daniel Cameron’s hard-line anti-abortion stance helped Beshear glide to a comfortable victory there.
A’shanti Gholar, president of Emerge, a political organisation that recruits and trains Democratic women to run for office, said her organisation had warned voters to pay attention to what was happening in states like Virginia and Kentucky and ballot measures in Ohio because Republicans were using those as test cases for what they might be able to accomplish in 2024.
State legislative candidates in Virginia focused heavily on the issue of abortion in their campaigns, warning Old Dominion residents that Republican Gov. Glenn Youngkin would ban abortion if the GOP won control of both houses of the legislature and the governorship.
Youngkin proposed a 15-week suspension as a “compromise.” Unfortunately, he was unable to persuade enough voters of the benefits of this plan, and Democrats now hold a majority in the state legislature.
Sen. Tim Kaine of Virginia stated, “We had a similar set of predictions about the Democratic awful performance in ’22 that didn’t come to fruition. Regardless of your feelings towards the president, you have to make a decision when faced with a field of contenders willing to curtail your liberty.
This is a problem that worries Republican presidential candidates as well. Trump’s campaign rhetoric may have alienated some voters in pivotal areas since he has boasted of picking judges to the Supreme Court who will reverse the 1973 Roe v. Wade decision, legalising abortion.
In a fundraising email on Wednesday, House Speaker Mike Johnson—who Democrats have used as their poster child for abortion restrictions—said that Democrats were “indoctrinating the young today on the issue and needed to be stopped” due to their position on the issue.Johnson stated that the stakes could not be higher because human lives are at risk. Borrowing a statement often used by Vice President Joe Biden, the Republican said, “I am imploring you to join me in this crucial struggle.
During Wednesday night’s GOP debate, all five candidates—former South Carolina governor Nikki Haley, South Carolina senator Tim Scott, Florida governor Ron DeSantis, former New Jersey governor Chris Christie, and Silicon Valley entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy—emphasized their staunch opposition to abortion.
Haley alone has called for the GOP to stop demonising their opponents and find a more productive way to discuss the subject. The audience applauded the line, but analysts think it won’t sway pro-abortion rights voters.
Conservative commentator and Trump surrogate Ford O’Connell thinks Republicans are awkward when discussing abortion.
The Democrats are confident in their strategy. He also warns Republicans to come to that realisation quickly. Biden’s presence alone is poisonous. O’Connell chimes in, naming the border, inflation, and the president’s age as further reasons why Biden’s policies are harmful. The only thing the GOP has to do to win over those voters is focus its argument on the topic that matters most to them.
Democrats, meanwhile, believe they may profit not just from the abortion issue but also from resentment towards Trump, whose favorability levels with the general voter are on par with Biden’s. Colorado Secretary of State and Democrat Jena Griswold warned voters of potential extremism in the upcoming 2024 election season, citing both Trump’s legal troubles and the Republican Party’s failure to “right the course of their party after the Jan. 6, 2021, insurrection.”
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